History is mostly the study of surprising events. But it is ...

History is mostly the study of surprising events. But it is often used by investors and economists as an unassailable guide to the future. Do you see the irony? Do you see the problem? It is smart to have a deep appreciation for economic and investing history. History helps us calibrate our expectations, study where people tend to go wrong, and offers a rough guide of what tends to work. But it is not, in any way, a map of the future.

You can’t predict the future only by looking at surprising past events.

www.joshbeckman.org/notes/567532963